Vaccinated? You're more likely to get Omicron.
The fog of war is a bit like trying to make sense of developing data. And Omicron is no different. However, what has developed in our investigations is a common theme: variants appear to have a predilection for the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated.
In Science - or Shots in the Dark? we discussed a paper by Horndler et al. entitled Decreased breadth of the antibody response to the spike protein of sars-cov-2 after repeated vaccination and figure 3 from that article perfectly encapsulated the dilemma of vaccination & variants.
Fig. 3 Relative reactivity of the sera tested against the Alpha, Delta and Kappa variants versus the Wuhan strain
The charts demonstrate a reduced ability of recipients of mRNA Covid-19 vaccines to recognise Alpha, Delta & Kappa variants after the second dose (PD2). The y-axis measures the sample’s ability to detect new variants. The higher up the axis, the better the detection.
Those data support prior research we have covered in Omicron - a variant of concern for the vaccinated. Figure 1 from that article demonstrated the increased percentage of the new variant (Delta - when it was the dominant variant) in the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated.
Fig.1 Variant distribution of vaccinated and unvaccinated
The distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages in fully vaccinated and unvaccinated cases from UCSF Hospitals and Clinics (top) and from Color Genomics Laboratory (bottom). In the UCSF charts, the inner circles represent the immunocompetent cases, and the outer circles include both immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals. From Predominance of antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccine breakthrough cases from the San Francisco Bay Area, California
In Omicron - a variant of concern for the vaccinated we also looked at a paper by Andeweg et al. from the Netherlands entitled Increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Beta, Gamma, and Delta variant compared to Alpha variant in vaccinated individuals. Their data support the evidence that the vaccinated are more likely to be infected with new variants.
Here, we analyze 28,578 sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from individuals with known immune status obtained through national community testing in the Netherlands from March to August 2021. We find evidence for an increased risk of infection by the Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants compared to the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant after vaccination. [My emphasis].
More importantly, they discovered that was not the case for the previously infected:
In contrast to vaccine-induced immunity, no increased risk for reinfection with Beta, Gamma or Delta variants relative to Alpha variant was found in individuals with infection-induced immunity. [My emphasis].
We also noted that Covid-19 vaccinations may be driving vaccine resistant variants.
Wang et al. in Mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 Evolution Revealing Vaccine-Resistant Mutations in Europe and America address that question:
By tracking the evolutionary trajectories of vaccine-resistant mutations in more than 2.2 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reveal that the occurrence and frequency of vaccine-resistant mutations correlate strongly with the vaccination rates in Europe and America.
Let’s now turn to more recent data.
England ONS data
The Office of National Statistics England just published data entitled Characteristics related to having an Omicron compatible result in those who test positive for COVID-19.
In that publication they compare the likelihood of getting infected with the Omicron variant rather than an older variant, compared to a reference. That reference was the unvaccinated. The vaccinated subjects were vaccinated with 1 dose; 2 doses; and a booster dose.
I extracted the data and ran statistical analysis on them. Data are preliminary and we can argue about adequate power ratios etc. but the results appear to support the previous evidence we have been discussing.
Data
Table 1. Likelihood of being infected with the Omicron variant rater than older variant, compared to the unvaccinated in the UK (29th Nov - 12th Dec, 2021).
1 Shot
2 Shots
3 Shots
Table 1 shows the data comparing the likelihood of being infected with the Omicron variant compared to an older variant, between the vaccinated (1 - 3 doses) and unvaccinated.
Statistical significance is weak for 1 shot but for those receiving 2 & 3 doses of Covid-19 vaccine, they are more likely to be infected with the new variant, Omicron, rather than an older variant, compared to an unvaccinated person.
The data are easier to interpret on a chart.
Figure 1. Relative risk of Omicron infection rather than an older variant in vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated.
Fig. 1 Graphically represents the increased risk of being infected with the new variant, Omicron. It uses the unvaccinated as the reference- Zero Line. Interpretation: Eg. the first shot is over 2 indicating an increased risk of being infected with Omicron (rather than an older variant) compared to the unvaccinated: 2 is over double the risk.
The chart (fig. 1) clearly shows the increased vulnerability the vaccinated have to being infected with a new variant compared to the unvaccinated. What we notice is a dose dependent trend: the more shots, the greater the risk. The booster 3rd shot carries an increased risk of 4.4 times compared to the unvaccinated.
As vaccine passports are not yet established across the UK, their influence on social behaviour between the vaccinated and unvaccinated would be negligible in that data.
One last study Epidemiological characterisation of the first 785 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant cases in Denmark, December 2021.
One line will do.
It is of concern that 83% of cases [with Omicron] occurred in fully or booster-vaccinated people.
My conclusion?
Developing evidence suggests that segregating society into two groups based on Covid-19 vaccination status, and mandating/coercing said vaccination, will both increase variants and the likelihood of the vaccinated being preferentially infected with those variants. The data suggest that the vaccinated are a significant risk for spreading new and emerging variants of Covid-19 infection.
However, I do not believe that the vaccinated should be removed from employment and prevented from engaging in society to their fullest potential. Rather, they should be persuaded through considerate discourse to re-think vaccination as a solution to the pandemic.